Rebuke or free rein: What’s at stake in the 2026 midterms

Donald Trump is not on any ballot on Nov. 3, 2026. Yet this election is about him: about how much power he will have left for the second half of his term. Voters will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 senators, as well as governors in 36 states and three territories. Republicans currently control both chambers, the House by 219 seats to 214 (including an independent who caucuses with them) and the Senate by 53 to 47. If they lose even one of them, Trump will govern for his last two years in office with a Congress that can push back against him.

The 2026 midterms are taking place in a climate that is unfavorable for the administration. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Oct. 19, 2026, Trump’s approval rating stood at 31%, the lowest in this poll series across both of his terms; a week later, it was 32%. On Oct. 29, 2026, gasoline cost a national average of $4.23 a gallon, $1.19 more than a year earlier. Forecast models show the Democrats clearly ahead in the House of Representatives and with a smaller lead in the Senate. But new district maps, tight races in conservative states and the uncertainty inherent in any poll keep the outcome open.

What is on the ballot on Nov. 3, 2026

Under the Constitution, members of the House of Representatives are elected every two years and senators for six years. Because Senate seats are divided into three classes, only about a third of the Senate is up for election, as in every election: 33 seats whose terms expire on schedule and two special elections, in Ohio and Florida. Of these 35 seats, Republicans hold 22 and Democrats 13. Elections are also being held for 88 state legislative chambers. In addition, 100 ballot measures are up for a vote in 37 states.

A party needs 218 seats for a majority in the House of Representatives. Republicans currently have 218 members. They are joined by Kevin Kiley of California, who left the party in March 2026 and still caucuses with the Republicans. Democrats hold 214 seats. Two seats have been vacant since resignations in April 2026, a Republican seat in Texas and a Democratic one in Florida. According to an earlier calculation by Decision Desk HQ, which assigns the vacant seats to the party that previously held them, Democrats need a net gain of three seats. How difficult that will be depends on the new districts. According to the Cook Political Report, new maps in 10 states reduced the number of competitive seats from 87 to 77. By that July calculation, Democrats must win at least 57 of them.

In the Senate, 53 Republicans face 45 Democrats and two independents, Angus King and Bernie Sanders, who caucus with the Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51. In the event of a 50-50 tie, Vice President JD Vance, a Republican, casts the deciding vote.

A president on the defensive: The 2026 midterms in numbers

Trump’s approval ratings have fallen markedly since he took office. In January 2025, the Reuters/Ipsos poll series put his approval at 47% and his disapproval at 41%; by late October 2026, his approval was down to 32%. In the average compiled by the Silver Bulletin, the service run by statistician Nate Silver, his approval recently fell to 36.3%, the lowest reading in that series; on Oct. 28, 2026, it stood at 37.4%, with disapproval at about 60%. Other measures paint a similar picture: In a Marist poll released on Oct. 27, 2026, the split among registered voters was 38% to 61%.

An AP-NORC poll released on Oct. 15, 2026, shows what is weighing on voters: 85% name the economy as one of the most important issues for their vote, 69% health care, 64% the war against Iran and 45% immigration and crime. About 8 in 10 registered voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the cost of living. In the Reuters/Ipsos poll of Oct. 19, 2026, 68% disapproved of his handling of the economy; among Republicans, 37% did.

Prices are at the heart of it. Inflation rose to 3.7% in September, from 3.4% in August. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), gasoline was 34.2% more expensive than a year earlier. The fuel price service GasBuddy reports that the national average was above $4 a gallon on 158 days in 2026 through mid-October, more often than in any previous year.

Prices climbed after the start of the war against Iran, which the United States and Israel opened with strikes on Feb. 28, 2026. Kyle Moore, chief economist at the think tank The Century Foundation, says the aimless war in Iran continues to disrupt global supply chains and to drive up prices for food and fuel.

Trump himself is tempering expectations. Asked about the political fallout from high gasoline prices, he said on Sept. 9, 2026, that he believed it would take a little longer than the midterm elections for prices to come down. Eight days later, he called the higher fuel prices a very small price for what the United States had done. Energy Secretary Chris Wright countered on Oct. 18, 2026, that prices had fallen in recent weeks, as had diesel prices, and that they would continue to fall. According to AAA, the price of gasoline dropped from $4.36 on Oct. 8 to $4.23 on Oct. 29, 2026, and stood at $4.20 on Oct. 30; AAA says crude oil prices above $100 a barrel are slowing further declines. Mark Shanahan of Britain’s University of Surrey sums up the situation: In his view, the Democrats can thank Donald J. Trump for their glowing position in the polls.

The lead on the generic ballot

A common measure of the national mood is the generic ballot: the question of which party respondents would vote for in the congressional election, without any candidates being named. In the Silver Bulletin average, the Democrats’ lead recently reached a new high for this election cycle at 9.2 percentage points before edging down to 8.7 points by Oct. 29, 2026. Weighted for likely voters, it is 9.2 points. In early August, the lead had been about 6.5 points.

Other measures point in the same direction, though not by the same margin. The smaller aggregator USPollingData had it at 49.3% to 41.9% on Oct. 29, 2026, a gap of 7.4 points. In the Reuters/Ipsos poll of Oct. 26, 2026, Democrats led among registered voters 47% to 36%, after 47% to 35% a week earlier. Marist found 52% to 44% among likely voters. The differences are probably mainly methodological, since the providers weight their data differently and select different polls.

A case documented by the Silver Bulletin shows how fraught the data can be: It has permanently excluded the pollster Wedgewood Polls after the firm, by the Silver Bulletin’s account, admitted to falsifying polling data.

What models and markets expect

Forecasts are estimates, not results. On Oct. 8, 2026, the Silver Bulletin model put the Democrats’ chance of winning a majority in the House of Representatives at 93.1% and in the Senate at 74.8%. On average, it projected 238.7 to 196.3 seats in the House and 52.2 to 47.8 seats in the Senate. According to The Daily Beast on Oct. 19, 2026, Silver has since upgraded his Senate rating from “Lean D” to “Likely D” and puts the Democrats’ chances at 75%. In late October, Silver spoke on a New York Times podcast of a chance of more than 90% in the House; after the Oct. 29, 2026, update, the Democrats remained clear favorites there, and their chances in the Senate held steady.

As recently as early September, the same model had seen the Senate as a toss-up; on Sept. 7, 2026, the Democrats stood at 50.1%. On the prediction market Kalshi, traders on Oct. 16, 2026, put the odds of a Democratic House at 90% and of a Democratic Senate at 63%.

The overview on the platform 270toWin, which combines the ratings of several forecasters, including the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections, is more cautious. Nate Silver noted that until late in the election cycle, experts’ ratings usually assume, implicitly, a neutral political environment. According to the overview of Oct. 23, 2026, 220 House seats lean at least slightly toward the Democrats and 196 toward the Republicans, while 19 are considered toss-ups. In the Senate, the Democrats and their independent allies, including the seats not up for election, come to 49 seats and the Republicans to 46, with five races considered toss-ups. The overview does not label its columns; the assignment is based on our reading.

The races that will decide the Senate

In the Senate, the math leaves the Democrats little room for error. They need a net gain of four seats: If they hold all 13 of their own, they must win four Republican seats, plus one more for every seat of their own they lose. According to the USPollingData polling average of Oct. 29, 2026, they lead clearly in North Carolina, narrowly in Ohio, Texas, Maine and Alaska, and by a razor-thin margin in Kansas. In Iowa, the race is essentially tied. Republicans lead narrowly in Nebraska and South Carolina and clearly in Florida. Democrats are ahead in their own competitive seats. The Silver Bulletin cautioned on Oct. 29, 2026, that the Democrats’ leads in its own average, for example in Texas (2.5 points), Ohio (3.0), Alaska (3.6) and Maine (2.4), are all just one normal-size polling error away from flipping.

In Maine, Susan Collins is defending the only Republican Senate seat up for election this year in a state that Kamala Harris won in 2024. Her challenger, Troy Jackson, was not nominated until July, after primary winner Graham Platner withdrew following allegations by former partners. In the last televised debate, on Oct. 15, 2026, Jackson said that what he knew was this: Donald Trump gets Susan Collins’ vote 100% of the time he asks her for one. Collins had said in an earlier debate that she did not believe Trump would come to Maine, adding that she had heard nothing from his office and was not exactly his favorite senator. Marist had Jackson ahead 51% to 47% in early October, while YouGov for CBS found a tie.

Several races have shifted over the course of the year. In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the runoff, 63.8% to 36.2%. In South Carolina, Sen. Lindsey Graham died on July 11, 2026, and Gov. Henry McMaster appointed his sister, Darline Graham. On Oct. 29, 2026, Fox News moved the race from “Lean R” to “Toss-up.” In Nebraska, the Democratic candidate had her name removed from the ballot. It is unclear which caucus independent Dan Osborn would work with in the Senate. In Alaska, an unrelated candidate listed as “Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr.” appears on the ballot alongside incumbent Dan Sullivan. According to a New York Times report picked up by AP on Oct. 28, 2026, members of Peltola’s campaign staff discussed by text message recruiting namesakes of the senator. Staff of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) were also involved, the report said, and in the end the choice fell on Dan J. Sullivan. The report is based in part on conversations with Peltola’s campaign manager, who was fired in August; according to the newspaper, she tried to retract her statements the previous week. Peltola’s campaign says it has nothing to do with either of the two Sullivan campaigns; the DSCC denies any connection to Dan J. Sullivan. He, for his part, had already denied any contact with Peltola’s team in June. According to AP, Trump said Peltola and the second Sullivan should be criminally prosecuted. On Oct. 22, 2026, the Justice Department had already filed a lawsuit at his direction to block the certification of a possible Peltola victory. Peltola’s campaign and the DSCC moved on Oct. 25, 2026, to have the lawsuit dismissed. Even in North Carolina, where Roy Cooper leads by about 11 points in the average, his campaign manager, Jeff Allen, says that no Democrat has won a statewide federal race there in almost two decades and that North Carolina is a 50-50 state.

New districts: The battle over the maps

What is unusual this time is that several states have redrawn their congressional districts in the middle of the decade. Texas went first. Gov. Greg Abbott signed a new map on Aug. 29, 2025, that is designed to give Republicans five additional seats. On Dec. 4, 2025, the Supreme Court allowed it to be used in 2026. California responded with Proposition 50, which voters approved on Nov. 4, 2025, with 64.42% of the vote and which is designed to give Democrats five seats. North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana and Alabama also adopted new maps favoring Republicans; in Utah, a court ordered a map favoring Democrats.

The parties did not prevail everywhere. In Missouri, courts blocked the new map in September 2026. In Virginia, the state’s highest court on May 8, 2026, declared unconstitutional a voter-approved measure for a redrawing in favor of Democrats. In Indiana, the state Senate rejected a new map, and in New York, the U.S. Supreme Court halted a court-ordered redrawing. On April 29, 2026, the Supreme Court also partially curtailed Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais.

Counting only the maps that remain valid, the designed effect comes to 15 seats for the Republicans and six for the Democrats, or a net of about nine seats in the Republicans’ favor. The new maps in Florida and Louisiana have been challenged in court (as of June and September 2026, respectively). Before the map in Missouri was blocked, the Associated Press put the net effect at about 10 seats. Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball noted in July that the Republicans’ gain would very likely not be enough on its own to decide the majority in the House.

Congress as a counterweight

The dispute over tariffs and sanctions shows what a new majority could achieve. On Feb. 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6 to 3 in Learning Resources v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not allow the president to impose tariffs. In the opinion, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that when Congress has delegated its tariff power, it has always done so explicitly and within strict limits. Refunds to more than 330,000 companies are estimated at $166 billion. The administration switched to other trade laws: first to a temporary tariff under Section 122 and, since July 24, 2026, to Section 301. On top of that come sector-specific tariffs under Section 232, which since July 31, 2026, have also covered pharmaceutical products.

How narrow the majorities are became clear as early as February. On Feb. 10, 2026, an attempt in the House of Representatives to extend a rule that blocked votes on repealing Trump’s tariffs failed. A day later, six Republicans joined the Democrats in voting to end the tariffs on Canada. Trump announced he would veto the measure.

The conflict over Russia was even starker. The Senate had passed, 86 to 11, a sanctions bill named after Lindsey Graham that provides for tariffs of up to 500% on Russian goods. Trump signed it in September. On Oct. 16, 2026, two days before it was due to take effect, he suspended the Russia provisions, citing the national interest. A week earlier, he had announced a diesel deal with Vladimir Putin, totaling 4.8 million metric tons according to the administration.

The objections also came from his own party. Republican Thom Tillis called the move more than irresponsible and asked what part of enforcing a law passed by the Senate 86 to 11 the president and his advisers did not understand. Susan Collins, a co-sponsor of the legislation, had already called on Oct. 11, 2026, together with Republicans Lisa Murkowski, John Curtis and Tillis and Democrats Jeanne Shaheen, Richard Blumenthal and Ron Wyden, for the diesel deal to be reversed, arguing that the United States should not throw Putin a financial lifeline while Russia continues to kill Ukrainian civilians.

The administration is defending its course. Enforcing the sanctions at this time would hamper U.S. efforts to negotiate a lasting and comprehensive peace agreement, White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said. The president, she added, could use the powers at any time. Talks on such an agreement took place in Oslo on Oct. 20, 2026, and the following day U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin in St. Petersburg. Republican Rep. Thomas Massie, by his own account one of only seven House Republicans who had voted against the law, welcomed the fact that Trump had used the executive powers granted to him by Congress. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, by contrast, wrote on X that this certainly does not stop the war.

Reuters writes that losing one chamber could complicate Trump’s agenda in the last two years of his term.

What the election means for Switzerland

For Switzerland, trade above all is at stake. After the EU, the United States is the country’s second-largest export market. In 2024, goods worth 65.3 billion Swiss francs went there, between just under 17% and 18.6% of all exports, depending on the source. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), Swiss companies have announced plans to invest at least $200 billion in the United States over the next five years.

According to Rahul Sahgal, head of the Swiss-American Chamber of Commerce, the United States had complied with the 15% cap from the declaration of intent through July. The Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research (EAER) expects the United States to continue to respect this limit. Other risks remain unresolved. A second Section 301 investigation into industrial overcapacity, targeting 16 partners including Switzerland, has not been concluded. Since July 24, 2026, the EU has been paying less than Switzerland, at 10%. Sahgal attributes the difference to the EU’s legislation against forced labor, which Switzerland lacks.

The business community has had to get used to the unpredictability. “I hear something different every day,” Sahgal said in July. Jürg Grossen, president of the Green Liberals (GLP), concluded: “Under Trump, there is no reliability.” Yves Bugmann, president of the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, took a more sober view: “At 12.5% for watches, the tariff rate is the lowest since April 2025.”

Whether the midterms will change much is an open question. The additional tariffs in force today are based on existing trade laws. The analyses we reviewed leave unanswered how a new Congress could influence them. We did not find any Swiss voice that commented explicitly on the midterm elections. SECO notes soberly that negotiations with the United States on a trade agreement are continuing. According to a summary by the portal law.ch, the Federal Council, Switzerland’s government, is seeking an outcome that would govern relations over the long term, regardless of legal and political developments in the United States.

After Election Day: Counting, runoffs, swearing-in

Many votes have already been cast: Six days before Election Day, about 35.4 million had been recorded, according to the Washington Examiner, 16.8 million of them by mail. According to NBC News, 47% of the votes recorded so far came from registered Democrats and 35% from Republicans. Texas accounted for the most votes: 5.2 million, compared with 3.4 million at the same point in 2022. That says little about the outcome, because party registration does not reveal how someone votes.

Whether the majorities will be settled on election night is uncertain. In Georgia, a runoff will follow on Dec. 1, 2026, if no candidate wins more than half of the vote. In Louisiana, Nov. 3, 2026, is only the primary for the House of Representatives; the general election will be held on Dec. 12, 2026. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting. Under the 20th Amendment, the newly elected representatives and senators take office on Jan. 3, 2027, at noon local time (6 p.m. Swiss time). This election does not decide the presidency.

Arena: Does Trump deserve a rebuke in the midterms?

Commentary: A Congress that can say no again

A rebuke is deserved. Not because of the poor poll numbers, but because Washington has forgotten a basic rule: The U.S. Constitution places power over tariffs and foreign trade in the hands of Congress, not the president. It took the Supreme Court to remind everyone that emergency law is not tariff law.

The case of the Russia sanctions shows where this leads. The Senate passes a bill 86 to 11. The president signs it. Two days before it takes effect, he suspends the sanctions, a week after announcing a diesel deal with Putin. That is not a predictable foreign policy. That Republicans such as Thom Tillis and Susan Collins protested at least shows that the separation of powers is not dead.

A Democratic majority in one chamber would therefore be not a punishment but a return to normal. It would not paralyze Trump, but it would force him to negotiate. Anyone who decries that as obstruction is confusing governing with governing unimpeded. America is strong when its institutions are strong, not when one man decides alone.

For Switzerland, the lesson is a different one. It should not pin its hopes on congressional districts in Texas or on a Senate race in Maine. Even a new Congress would be unlikely to abolish the Section 301 tariffs overnight. What matters is an agreement that holds regardless of the political weather in Washington. The Federal Council has set out this goal. It should stick to it, even if the polls in America look favorable at the moment. America yes, Trump no: That stance remains right, but it is no substitute for pursuing Switzerland’s own interests.

All figures as of Oct. 30, 2026, unless otherwise noted. Polls and model forecasts are estimates subject to uncertainty, not results; figures from different providers are based on different methods. The Silver Bulletin’s current model figures are not freely accessible. It was not possible to recheck the balance of power and the House overview from 270toWin (as of Oct. 23, 2026), Kalshi (Oct. 16, 2026), the lawsuits against district maps and the tariffs on Switzerland (as of Oct. 25, 2026). Some information comes from secondary sources because the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball could not be accessed directly. Quotes originally given in another language were translated by the editors. Sources are cited in their original language.

Related coverage: America yes, Trump no: Why we love the United States and don’t need its president (in German) · Tariff deal with Trump: Switzerland pays, says thank you and is punished anyway (in German) · The V8 is back: Why Detroit is unwinding its electric bet and what that means for Switzerland (in German)

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