License to wait: The billion-dollar poker game over the new James Bond
James Bond has been dead for five years, and there is still no successor. Amazon has taken control of 007, Denis Villeneuve is directing, and the candidates are being traded like stocks on prediction markets. An analysis of art and "content," a mysterious purchase price and the question of what links Switzerland to Bond.
At the end of “No Time to Die,” James Bond dies. Daniel Craig’s 007 stays behind on an island as British missiles fly toward it. Then the credits roll with the old promise: “James Bond will return.” That was on Sept. 30, 2021. No one has made a Bond film since. The Broccoli family, which ran 007 for more than six decades, has handed creative control to Amazon. Canadian Denis Villeneuve is directing, and Briton Steven Knight is writing the screenplay. Only the most important question remains open: Who will be Bond?
Since May 2026, the search for a new James Bond has been official. On prediction markets, people are betting real money on the candidates, and every remark by an actor moves the odds. The hiatus has now lasted more than five years. If the next film comes out in 2028 at the earliest, as reported, it is likely to become the longest in the franchise’s history. It is also an object lesson in what happens when a cultural treasure becomes a corporation’s content. And, as so often with Bond, it also leads to Switzerland.
| At a glance | Bond 26 |
|---|---|
| Project | Working title Bond 26, the first Bond film under Amazon MGM |
| Rights | Amazon MGM Studios, with creative control since March 24, 2025 (announced on Feb. 20, 2025); Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson remain co-owners |
| Producers | Amy Pascal, David Heyman |
| Director | Denis Villeneuve (“Dune,” “Blade Runner 2049”) |
| Screenplay | Steven Knight (“Peaky Blinders”) |
| Casting | Nina Gold, according to Variety |
| Lead role | open; an announcement by the end of 2026 is a good bet, Pascal says |
| Start of filming | expected in 2027, not official |
| Release | reportedly not before 2028, not official |
| Last film | “No Time to Die,” Sept. 30, 2021 |
How 007 ended up at Amazon
The break had been coming for some time. In December 2024, The Wall Street Journal made the power struggle public. Barbara Broccoli, who had produced Bond with her half brother Michael G. Wilson since “GoldenEye” in 1995, is said to have called Amazon executives idiots among friends, with a coarse expletive attached, according to the paper. What particularly bothered her, it reported, was that Jennifer Salke, then head of the studio, referred to new Bond projects as “content.” Broccoli blocked plans for a series about Moneypenny and other spinoffs. The only project she had allowed was the game show “007: Road to a Million.”
Amazon, after all, already owned half of it. With its purchase of the Hollywood studio MGM, for which the company had paid $8.5 billion, it had acquired half of Bond, though without any say in creative decisions. On Feb. 20, 2025, the partners announced that Amazon MGM would take over creative control. The handover was completed on March 24, 2025. Since then, the rights have been held by a joint venture in which Broccoli and Wilson retain stakes. Broccoli let it be known that she now wanted to focus on other projects. According to Deadline, someone who had heard the news from her by phone compared the call to being told of a death in the family.
What Amazon paid for it remains a mystery to this day. Deadline reported at the time that the figure was about $1 billion. The annual accounts of Broccoli’s production company, Eon Productions, filed with the British companies register on Oct. 22, 2025, by contrast, list $20 million for Eon’s stake, including two subsidiaries. Whether any further consideration was paid, such as options or bonuses, has not been disclosed. Amazon did not comment.
For Amazon, Bond is more than a film series. The company aims to release at least 15 theatrical films a year, as Prime Video chief Mike Hopkins reaffirmed at the industry convention CinemaCon in April 2026. According to Deadline, the main reason for the takeover was the plan to build Bond into a cinematic universe of its own, modeled on Marvel and “Star Wars,” with spinoffs in theaters and as series. That was exactly what Broccoli had wanted to prevent.
A high-caliber lineup, except for the lead
Amazon has not skimped on talent. In March 2025, the company brought in two heavyweights as producers: David Heyman, who produced all eight “Harry Potter” films, and Amy Pascal, the former head of Sony Pictures, who as a producer was responsible for the most recent “Spider-Man” films. Denis Villeneuve followed as director in June 2025, and in July Steven Knight, the creator of the series “Peaky Blinders,” came on board as screenwriter.
Villeneuve is the real gamble. The Canadian is one of the few directors who make blockbusters with auteur ambitions, from “Arrival” and “Blade Runner 2049” to the “Dune” saga, whose third installment opens in theaters in December 2026. For him, Bond is also an escape. He needs a very powerful rocket to pull him away from Arrakis, he told the film magazine Empire in October. He is tired of “Dune,” he said. For the conclusion of the trilogy, he nonetheless intends to be rigorous with the material, not complacent. According to the fan site The James Bond Dossier, Villeneuve has signed on for only one film.
Steven Knight appears to have finished the first draft. Asked on British radio in September whether he had completed it, he replied that he was nodding silently. As for whether he was writing for a particular actor, Knight said it was a bit of both. But one has to write the character, he said, not the actor.
Wanted: An enigma under 30
On Thursday, May 14, 2026, Amazon confirmed what everyone had long known: The search for the next James Bond had begun. It would not comment on details while casting was underway, the company said. According to Variety, the search is being led by British casting director Nina Gold, who cast “Game of Thrones” and “The Crown.”
The profile that the trade press has been passing around since then is narrow. As early as June 2025, Variety reported that a British actor under 30 was being sought. In September 2025, Deadline reported: male, from the United Kingdom, relatively unknown, late twenties to early thirties. Former favorites such as Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Henry Cavill or Idris Elba hardly fit that profile anymore. As recently as November 2024, Barbara Broccoli had reportedly been looking for someone in his thirties who could play the role for about a decade.
A Bond under 30 would be a break with tradition. On average, the six actors who have played him so far were 38 at their first outing. Sean Connery was 32, Roger Moore 45. The youngest was George Lazenby, at 30. He made only a single film.
One woman who ought to know has little time for famous names. Debbie McWilliams was the series’ casting director for roughly four decades and helped select Timothy Dalton, Pierce Brosnan and Daniel Craig. The new Bond must remain a total enigma, she told The Independent in June. The aim, she said, is to know as little as possible about the actors personally, because that is exactly what spies are. Bond has a license to kill, she added, and one has to believe he is capable of it.
Who will be the next James Bond? The rumor exchange
In the absence of official information, speculation is flourishing. It has long since become a business. On the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, users bet real money on who will become Bond. On Oct. 2, 2026, Scotsman Jack Lowden, known for the spy series “Slow Horses,” led on Kalshi with 44%. He was followed by Callum Turner, who played a bomber pilot in “Masters of the Air,” at 39% and Jack O’Connell at 11%. The lead changed hands several times.
Gary Oldman demonstrated in early September just how thin the facts are. The actor, Lowden’s co-star in “Slow Horses,” said in a Canadian television interview that the choice had been made. According to rumors, he said, Lowden was on the shortlist. He hoped his colleague would get the part. Lowden then rose to become the favorite on the prediction markets. Oldman later clarified that he had no inside information.
In late August, Page Six had listed six names for screen tests: Jack Barton, Jacob Elordi, Paul Mescal, Callum Turner, Jack Lowden and Harris Dickinson. Matt Belloni, a well-connected Hollywood journalist, contradicted that report in early September in his Puck newsletter. The lists in circulation were nonsense, he wrote; screen tests would not take place until later in the fall. Amazon, he reported, was currently sending out so-called test deals, preliminary contracts that set out pay, options and availability before a candidate seriously auditions. Anyone who claims to know at this point who Bond is, he wrote, does not know. In June, the website The Playlist named British musical theater actor Tom Francis as the only name known to have auditioned for Villeneuve.
What stands out is how poorly the favorites fit the reported profile. Lowden, Turner and O’Connell are all 36. Of the most frequently mentioned names, only Australian Jacob Elordi is under 30. He is not British. Paul Mescal is Irish, and Harris Dickinson turned 30 in June. Either the profile is wrong, or the bettors know less than the odds suggest.
| Candidate | Age, origin | Known for | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Lowden | 36, Scotland | “Slow Horses,” “Dunkirk” | 44% on Kalshi (Oct. 2, 2026) |
| Callum Turner | 36, England | “Masters of the Air,” “The Boys in the Boat” | 39% on Kalshi |
| Jack O’Connell | 36, England | “Skins,” “Unbroken” | 11% on Kalshi |
| Jacob Elordi | 29, Australia | “Euphoria,” “Frankenstein” | named by Page Six |
| Harris Dickinson | 30, England | “The Iron Claw,” “Beach Rats” | named by Page Six |
| Paul Mescal | 30, Ireland | “Normal People,” “Gladiator II” | named by Page Six |
The producer is projecting calm. An announcement by the end of the year is a good bet, Amy Pascal told the trade publication Deadline in August. The process, she said, is very, very methodical. And Daniel Craig, she added, is hard to replace.
The longest break in Bond history
Bond once ran like clockwork. In the 1960s, a new film came out almost every year, and after that usually every two years. Until now, the longest break was between “Licence to Kill” and “GoldenEye”: Just under six and a half years passed between the premiere in June 1989 and the British premiere in November 1995. At the time, a legal dispute over the MGM studio held up the series. More than five years have now passed since “No Time to Die.” If Bond 26 reaches theaters in 2028 at the earliest, as reported, the record is likely to fall.
The irony: When Amazon took control, it was precisely the old guard’s pace that was considered the problem. Under the old guard, for better or worse, productions took a long time to mature, industry analyst Jeff Bock told Variety at the time. Now, of all things, the longest wait in the series’ history looms under Amazon. Given the scale of the project, a release before 2028 would be impossible to pull off, Variety reported as early as June 2025, citing insiders. Filming is expected to start in 2027. None of these dates is official.
Bond lives on, just not on the big screen
While cinema waits, another medium is showing that a young Bond works. The Danish studio IO Interactive, known for the “Hitman” series, released the video game “007 First Light,” an origin story about Bond’s first mission, on May 27, 2026. Irish actor Patrick Gibson plays the young agent. In just under three months, the game sold more than 4 million copies, and the reviews were very good.
The game is also an argument in the casting debate. It shows that a Bond in his mid-twenties does not put audiences off. Whether the same holds true in cinema, where an actor has to carry the role over years and several films, is another question.
Who gets to be Bond
Every casting decision is also a debate about who gets to be Bond. In 2018, Barbara Broccoli made it clear in The Guardian that Bond is male. Male characters did not need to be turned into women, she said; rather, more female characters should be created. Calls for a Black Bond, often linked to the name Idris Elba, have accompanied the series for years. With the reported profile, Amazon is betting on continuity: male, British, young.
At the same time, the character itself is being carefully remodeled. In 2023, Ian Fleming Publications, the custodian of the novels, had the books reviewed by so-called sensitivity readers. Since then, new editions have carried a notice that some terms and attitudes are now considered offensive. Racist terms were replaced. Fleming himself had authorized some of the changes during his lifetime for the American edition of “Live and Let Die.”
Above all, though, Bond is a business. Together, the 25 Eon films grossed about $7.6 billion, or more than $20 billion adjusted for inflation. The Craig era was the most commercially successful in nominal terms, and, adjusted for inflation, also in average earnings per film. In total, however, Connery’s six films took in more when adjusted for inflation. In 2012, “Skyfall” became the first Bond film to cross the billion-dollar mark. After that, it was downhill: “No Time to Die,” released in the middle of the pandemic, took in about $771 million. Then there are the brand partners that have been tied to 007 for decades, from Aston Martin, since “Goldfinger,” to the Biel-based watchmaker Omega, since “GoldenEye.”
Bond and Switzerland: A summit, a dam and a bikini
Switzerland plays a surprisingly large role in Bond history. The first great Bond girl came from the canton of Bern. Ursula Andress, born on March 19, 1936, in Ostermundigen, rose from the sea as Honey Ryder in “Dr. No” in 1962, wearing the white bikini that made film history. In 1964, she received a Golden Globe as the year’s most promising newcomer. In 2001, the bikini was sold at auction for more than £35,000. Andress celebrated her 90th birthday in March 2026.
Even more consequential was “On Her Majesty’s Secret Service” from 1969. For the hideout of the villain Blofeld, the production was looking for a mountaintop and found it in the Bernese Oberland: the Schilthorn above Mürren, 2,970 meters high, where a revolving restaurant was under construction at the time. The filmmakers contributed to its completion, including the power supply and the cable car. In return, they were allowed to film there exclusively. Shooting began on Oct. 21, 1968, and the Swiss portion ran 56 days longer than planned. The name from the film stuck: The restaurant is still called Piz Gloria today. In Fleming’s novel, incidentally, Piz Gloria was located in the Engadine, above Pontresina.
“Without the film, the Schilthorn would not exist in this form,” Christoph Egger, director of Schilthornbahn, the cable car company, said in 2019. The myth pays off. In summer 2025, the cable car company recorded 1,910,962 rides, 18.4% more than the previous year. In summer 2026, the number of passengers rose again by about a third, and revenue by 17.8%. On the summit, an exhibition and a Walk of Fame commemorate the film, and the restaurant makes one full rotation every 45 minutes.
As early as 1964, “Goldfinger” had made Switzerland a backdrop. On the Furka Pass, Bond’s Aston Martin DB5 duels with the Ford Mustang of Tilly Masterson, who is out for revenge on Goldfinger.
In 1995, in “GoldenEye,” stuntman Wayne Michaels jumped on a bungee cord from the 220-meter-high Verzasca Dam in Ticino. In 2002, the jump was voted the best movie stunt of all time in a poll by the broadcaster Sky Movies. Since then, tourists have been able to do it themselves; according to the operator, more than 10,000 people have done so.
Since 1995, Bond has worn an Omega from Biel on his wrist. It replaced the Rolex from Geneva because costume designer Lindy Hemming wanted Bond to be modern and European. Roger Moore, the Bond of the 1970s, also lived in Switzerland for many years and died in Crans-Montana on May 23, 2017. And Ian Fleming himself studied briefly in Geneva as a young man, where he became engaged to a Swiss woman.
Timeline: The long road to Bond 26
Arena: Unknown newcomer or established star?
For: An unknown
- Mystery is part of the character: Longtime casting director Debbie McWilliams wants to know as little as possible about the actor, because that, she says, is exactly what spies are.
- A fresh start needs a new face: Bond is dead, and Bond 26 has to start over.
- A long commitment: An actor under 30 can shape the role for many years. Test deals settle pay and availability in advance.
- The Connery precedent: The first Bond, too, was barely known in 1962.
- A young Bond works: “007 First Light” sold more than 4 million copies.
Against: An established star
- A safety net: In a business of this magnitude, a familiar face lowers the risk.
- The lesson of Lazenby: The youngest Bond made only a single film.
- Gravitas over youth: On average, Bond actors made their debut at 38.
- Credible toughness: The new Bond has to look as if he could kill someone with his bare hands in an instant, Deadline quoted an insider as saying.
- The markets are betting on a track record: The favorites, Lowden and Turner, are seasoned actors.
Commentary: What Bond needs is a good film, not a corporate plan
The search for the new Bond has become a spectacle from which everyone profits except the audience. Prediction markets collect stakes, tabloids collect clicks, actors collect attention. The one thing missing is a film. Amazon took over 007 and promised a great deal. So far, little of it has been delivered.
And yet the starting position is excellent. In Villeneuve, Amazon has secured a director who can combine grandeur and seriousness. In Knight, it has a writer who creates characters with dark depths. The greatest danger lies not in the casting but in the temptation to treat Bond as a brand from which series, spinoffs and games can be carved at will. Bond was never a universe. He was a man, a suit and a promise every two or three years.
Whether the new Bond is unknown or famous is secondary. Connery was an unknown; when Craig was chosen, many considered him miscast. Both became great Bonds because the films were good. Amazon should therefore worry less about betting odds than about the script. And about the timing: A Bond that people have to wait seven years for cannot be a product. It has to be an event.
All figures as of Oct. 18, 2026. The casting, start of filming, release date and budget of Bond 26 have not been officially confirmed. The candidates named are based on media reports and prediction markets. Box office figures are nominal, according to the Wikipedia list of Bond films. Statements originally made in English are paraphrased. Quotes originally given in another language were translated by the editors. Sources are cited in their original language.
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Sources
- Engadget, citing The Wall Street Journal: The conflict between Broccoli and Amazon (Dec. 20, 2024)
- Variety: Why Amazon took control of Bond (Feb. 21, 2025)
- Amazon: Announcement on creative control of Bond (Feb. 20, 2025, completed on March 24, 2025)
- The Playlist, citing Deadline: About $1 billion for control (Feb. 21, 2025)
- NME, citing Deadline: Amazon’s plans for a Bond universe (Feb. 21, 2025)
- Screen Daily: Eon’s annual accounts cite $20 million (October 2025)
- TheWrap: Amazon MGM at CinemaCon (April 16, 2026)
- The James Bond Dossier: Bond 26 at a glance
- Gizmodo, citing Empire: Villeneuve on Bond and Arrakis (Oct. 15, 2026)
- Variety: Steven Knight and the first draft (Sept. 11, 2026)
- TheWrap: Amazon confirms the search for the new Bond (May 14, 2026)
- Variety: Amazon’s ideal profile for Bond 26 (June 27, 2025)
- MI6-HQ, citing Deadline: The requirements for the new Bond (Sept. 24, 2025)
- Film Stories: Barbara Broccoli on the search (Nov. 14, 2024)
- The Playlist, citing The Independent: Debbie McWilliams on the enigma of Bond (June 30, 2026)
- Kalshi: Lowden leads Turner (Oct. 2, 2026)
- IBTimes: Gary Oldman on the choice of Bond (September 2026)
- The Playlist, citing Page Six: Six names for screen tests (Aug. 26, 2026)
- The James Bond Dossier, citing Puck: Test deals and rumors (Sept. 5, 2026)
- Khaleej Times, citing Deadline: Amy Pascal on the timeline (Aug. 5, 2026)
- Wikipedia: Jack Lowden
- Wikipedia: Callum Turner
- Wikipedia: Jack O’Connell
- Wikipedia: Jacob Elordi
- Wikipedia: Harris Dickinson
- Wikipedia: Paul Mescal
- Wikipedia: List of Bond films with box office figures (accessed Oct. 18, 2026)
- Push Square: “007 First Light” sells more than 4 million copies (Aug. 20, 2026)
- MI6-HQ, citing The Guardian: Barbara Broccoli on a female Bond (Oct. 7, 2018)
- Variety: Revised Fleming novels (Feb. 27, 2023)
- Wikipedia: Ursula Andress
- Wikipedia: “On Her Majesty’s Secret Service,” filming in Switzerland
- Wikipedia: Piz Gloria
- plattformj: 50 years of Bond on the Schilthorn (April 21, 2019)
- Schilthornbahn: Summer season 2025 (Nov. 10, 2025)
- Schilthornbahn: Summer season 2026 (Oct. 15, 2026)
- Wikipedia: Verzasca Dam
- Wikipedia: Omega and James Bond
- Wikipedia: Roger Moore
- Wikipedia: Ian Fleming
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